Worsening crisis

According to new United Nations figures released on Wednesday, three new areas in southern Somalia have deteriorated into a famine situation after the declarations in south Bakool and Lower Shabelle two weeks ago.

Parts of the Middle Shabelle region, the Afgooye Corridor settlements, which have been home to roughly 400,000 displaced people since 2007, and parts of Mogadishu which are hosting refugees, are now facing a serious food crisis.

In a statement released to Deutsche Welle, Mark Bowden, the UN's humanitarian coordinator for Somalia, said that the latest information coming from the southern regions "confirms our concerns over the increasing severity of the crisis facing Somalia."

"The declaration of famine in Mogadishu reflects the massive influx of people into the city in the last two months and the need to redouble our efforts to improve conditions," he said. "I call on all parties to support an urgent scale up of assistance so that we can save the lives of those who most need our support at this critical moment in accordance with humanitarian principles."

Thousands of refugees have trudged hundreds of kilometers from Islamist-held areas to Somalia's embattled capital looking for food because al Qaeda-linked al Shebab militants have been blocking aid and preventing starving Somalis from fleeing to neighboring Ethiopia or Kenya to escape the famine. All but 400,000 of Somalia's estimated nine million people live in the south of the country under the control of al Shabab and other Islamist militant groups

Islamists' stance on aid exacerbates problems

In February 2010, al Shabab ordered the World Food Program to leave southern Somalia and later that year expelled three aid agencies World Vision, Adventist Development and Relief Agency, accusing them of spreading Christian propaganda.

"The three main causes of the deterioration in southern Somalia are drought, conflict and displacement, and the lack of access and hence absence of most humanitarian agencies in this region," Emilia Casella from the UN World Food Program (WFP) told Deutsche Welle. "WFP suspended operations in much of the south of Somalia from January 2010 because of unacceptable demands: WFP staff members were threatened; women were barred from working for WFP; unofficial taxes were demanded."

The Islamist group lifted the food aid ban earlier this month, saying agencies with no hidden agenda were free to operate in their areas. But two weeks later, it said expelled agencies remained banned. The insurgents continue to accuse the United Nations of exaggerating the severity of the drought in the south and politicising the crisis.

One unnamed US official responded by telling reporters earlier this week that it was no surprise that the worst affected areas were under Islamist control, given their reputation from preventing the distribution of aid.

However, one British development consultant currently coordinating aid efforts in the country said that the exclusion of international organizations in Somalia by Islamists is not a wholly accurate description of the situation on the ground.

"Although the World Food Program (WFP) and a small number of international NGOs were not able to work in certain areas of south central Somalia, there are a large number of both UN agencies and international NGOs who are and have been working normally within these areas for years without much trouble," the consultant told Deutsche Welle under conditions of anonymity due to security issues.

"This has been possible due to the strong civil society network in Somalia that has been working with these agencies to deliver a broad range of services to local communities, ranging from health and education programs to developing local governance capacities."

Displaced Somalis flee to war-ravaged capital

The UN estimates that more than 100,000 internally displaced people have fled Islamist-controlled areas to the makeshift camps which have been erected across Mogadishu despite the fact that the capital remains a battleground for fighting between al Shabab and government troops backed by African Union peacekeepers.

The severity of the situation in the countryside outside Mogadishu means that even the war-ravaged city is a better option for most people. At least there they receive some help from local and international aid agencies, something which is often absent from the Islamist-controlled areas they have fled from.

Those who have escaped al Shabab but have avoided Mogadishu are fleeing across the borders into Ethiopia and Kenya, putting extra strain on neighboring countries with their own problems. Around 2000 people a day are said to be arriving in camps outside of Somalia.

The refugee exodus, hand-in-hand with the famine across the Horn of Africa, could put 12 million people at risk in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and surrounding areas, according to US statistics.

In Somalia alone 3.2 million people are in critical need of assistance, according to UN figures, with 2.8 million of those in southern Somalia, at least 1.25 million of which are children.

Figures released by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) this week stated that in the last 90 days some 29,000 Somali children under five have died in what US aid experts have called the Horn of Africa's worst humanitarian crisis in a generation. Estimates suggest the famine is expected to worsen and eventually dwarf the 1984 famine in Ethiopia which claimed nearly a million lives.

Money as much as food can help Somalia

With the famine situation deteriorating rapidly in tandem with the escalating instability, aid organizations have urgently called for more assistance, complaining that the response from the international community has been too slow. Many aid experts believe that it's not so much a lack of food that needs to be rapidly addressed but improved access for Somalis to that which is available and brave initiatives to provide the money to pay for it.

"Although it may seem counter intuitive, famines, such as the one in Somalia now, are not a result of the absolute lack of food within an area but are a result of peoples current inability to access the food available," the British consultant said.

"In Somalia this manifests itself through people having lost all of their assets over the past several years through successive droughts, leaving them without anything to sell in order to buy the food available in local markets," he said. "Food is in the markets in Somalia, although at much higher prices than normal due to the drought. What is missing is money."

The focus in Somalia, he added, should be on providing the resources needed by households in order to support them in their homes while keeping markets operational within the country. An Islamic banking system called the halwalas, where money can be allocated to a household to purchase what they need when they need it, could provide the means for families to buy food without making them dependent on aid.

"While there are dangers that this money may end up in the hands of al Shabab or force the prices in markets to suddenly increase, systems and control measures can be put in place to minimize these potential negative outcomes and ensure that money gets to people in need," he said.

The British consultant pointed out that cash transfers have worked in similarly difficult environments. "What is needed now is some courage on the donors' behalf to support this approach. There will be problems in setting up and getting this right, but it can and should be done."

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Michael Knigge