Hazards Remain Ahead for Turkey's EU Dreams

Call it an important first step.

Whether Turkey’s chances of joining the European Union any time soon are greater since the parliament passed a host of reforms over the weekend, remains in doubt, say experts.

Roughly two-thirds of the Turkish population say they support Turkey joining the 15-member body. But observers say that has to be viewed in context. The government is in disarray at the moment, after eight ministers resigned their posts because ailing Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit refused to step down.

Turkey is saddled with paying back a 16.3 billion euro ($16 billion) bailout package from the World Bank last year after the country struggled through its worst recession in more than five decades. Tough economic reforms, such as trimming the bloated public sector and doing away with corruption, still seem a long way off.

During these times of economic hardship, many in Turkey view the European Union as a cure-all.

"Joining the EU has become a national obsession, which everyone seems to believe will solve all of Turkey’s problems at a stroke," Umit Ozdag of the Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies told the New York Times.

More rights for Kurds, no more death penalty

The package, which was passed over the weekend after a marathon debate lasting close to 22 hours, includes measures ending punishments for criticism of the armed forces and other pillars of the Turkish establishment, outlawing organ and people smuggling, easing restrictions on foreign associations working in Turkey as well as on the Kurdish language.

"I welcome the courageous decision o fthe Turkish Parliament," said Günter Verheugen, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, in a statement. "This decision would not have been possible without a clear Europan perspective that the EU has developed for Turkey."

In the past Turkey has run into problems with Brussels after defaulting on promises to implement reforms. It has also often come under fire from international humanitarian organizations and the UN for its poor human rights record and conflict with the 12 million-strong Kurdish minority.

On Monday, an EU Commission spokesperson told reporters, though Brussels welcomed the reforms, they had no plans to speed up negotiations with Turkey.

Everything, she said, "must be examined up until the tiniest detail."

The reforms were greeted with cautious praise from Greece, Turkey’s historic opponent in the European Union.

Greece remains wary

A spokesman for the Greek Foreign Ministry said Greece "firmly supports Turkey’s European orientation." "At the same time, we are closely observing the practice of the Turkish authorities towards the self-ruled institution of the Greek minority in Istanbul. This practice, which contravenes international treaties will be assessed by the European Union."

Greece has said in the past it would veto Turkey’s accession to the European Union because of the numerous problems between the two neighbors and NATO countries.

Conflicts over air and sea space in the Aegean Sea by military aircraft on both sides and Turkey’s occupation of the northern third of Cyprus have kept relations between the two countries frozen for decades.

There has been a thaw in recent years, initiated mainly by the private sector in both countries. TUSIAD, the powerful organization of Turkish industry that lobbied heavily for the human rights reforms, has also been an advocate of improving Greek-Turkish relations.

Cyprus, the biggest thorn

Cyprus continues to remain a thorn in the side of both governments. Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash and his counterpart Glafcos Clerides, president of the Republic of Cyprus, have met more regularly in the last year due, in no small part, to pressure from the UN, EU and US.

But a resolution to unifying the island, divided since Turkish troops invaded in 1974, continues to stumble in the face of the Republic of Cyprus’ likely accession into the European Union as early as 2004. Turkey has said it would annex the northern third of Cyprus should the southern two-thirds join the EU without them.

Turkey still has time. The recent reforms were mainly aimed at getting Brussels to commit to a date on which negotiations could begin. Observers say an actual membership is six, maybe eight, years off. Some think longer than that.

"Most people in the EU are not prepared to stomach the idea of having borders with Iraq, Iran and Syria," international relations expert Hasan Unal told the New York Times. "Even if they do let Turkey join, it will not be for another 20 years."