In for a surprise at IAA Motor Show

But what will she say? Not wanting to get prematurely nailed down on decisions, Merkel rarely speaks unambiguously while she almost never gets emotional. Yet, during the recent televised debate with her election challenger, Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz, Ms. Merkel vigorously criticized car company executives. This generated expectations she might have clear policy words to say at the IAA.

If the chancellor wants to indulge in some plain speaking, there's lots to say: on the massive diesel emissions fraud committed by VW and other carmakers, for example. Also on an illegal price and technology fixing cartel. For years, several German carmakers coordinated business decisions in detail in private, and then pretended to be competitors in public - including at trade fairs like the IAA.

Traditionally at the IAA, the German chancellor shows up for a photo opportunity, sitting in a car considered particularly promising and future-oriented. A lot of experts think the most significant car to come on the market this year is the Tesla Model 3, which is meant to make electromobility affordable for the masses. Too bad then that Tesla decided not to exhibit at this year's IAA.

The company that leads global electric car sales is Nissan. The new Nissan Leaf has a maximum range of 400 kilometers. Why aren't electromobility champions Nissan and Tesla attending then? We don't know, but it may be because the IAA has traditionally celebrated internal combustion engine cars and diesel technologies. The new Nissan Leaf is being presented at Chiba, near Tokyo, this week instead.

The Swedish carmaker also decided not to come to this year's IAA (or rather Swedish-Chinese, as Volvo was taken over by Chinese carmaker Geely in 2010). Nowadays cars are increasingly sold over the internet and some have decided to avoid the high expense of exhibiting at trade fairs. From 2019, all new Volvo models will be electric-petrol hybrids or fully electric vehicles.

Volvo, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Peugeot, Fiat Chrysler, Alfa Romeo - a long list of established carmakers are not coming to this year's IAA. Whatever their different reasons, the collective no-show does suggest that IAA trade-fair managers had better develop new ideas for drawing exhibitors in the future.

With so many carmakers not attending, there's room for new exhibitors from other parts of the automotive business ecosystem. Facebook is among the digital-economy companies exhibiting at IAA this year, with the California-based social network to present its ideas for "Future Transportation.'" Other digital economy firms including Kaspersky Labs, IBM, Siemens and Telekom will also be exhibiting.

Electromobility may not be a focus at IAA, but new records in fossil-fueled horsepower will be set and highly expensive vehicles will be displayed. Mercedes, for example, will present a sports car costing 3 million euros ($3.6 million) while SUVs of every variety will be available from those carmakers which are coming this year.

The record for visitor numbers is in excess of 900,000, but it's doubtful whether the previous records will be exceeded this year. On September 24, the day the IAA trade fair ends (which is also the day Germany's federal election takes place), we'll know the number of tickets sold — and whether IAA can still plausibly claim to be the world's leading automotive trade fair.