Israel has a bargaining chip with Golan Heights

Following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus, Israel's military advances into Syria have raised alarm. 

Initially, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had stated that the advances were a temporary measure to ensure Israel's security at the border with Syria, where militias that were not identified as aligned with the new Damascus government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, kept jostling for power.

However, this week, when Netanyahu visited the highest point of the newly-seized region, Mount Hermon, overlooking Damascus, Beirut and Jerusalem, he said that "we will stay…until another arrangement is found that ensures Israel's security."

Only, a new Syrian government is not scheduled to be in place before at least March 2025.

Concerns over Israel's seizure of Syrian territory grew this week after Netanyahu announced that Israel will be investing in infrastructure in the Golan Heights, located in the southwest of Syria. 

Israel's aim is to double the current population of about 50,000 people living in the mountainous Golan Heights, which Israel occupied after the Six-Day War in 1967. Around half of them are Jewish Israelis, the other half are of the Druze minority and mostly consider themselves Syrian, albeit with Israeli residency.

In 1981, Israel annexed the Golan Heights. In 2019 then-and-future US President Donald Trump recognized the Golan Heights as Israeli territory.

The UN, EU and most other countries continue to consider the area as Syrian territory under Israeli occupation.

The recently occupied area is the Syrian side of a previously demilitarized UN-controlled buffer zone of around 400 square kilometers (155 square miles) which lies between the annexed Golan Heights and Syria.

The zone was established as part of a ceasefire during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war and has since been under the control of around 1,100 UN troops.

Meanwhile, HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, who was previously known by his fighter name Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has condemned Israel's operations.

However, he also highlighted that Syria was not seeking a military conflict with Israel. Instead, the new Syrian rulers lodged a complaint with the UN Security Council.

Why did Israel move into the Golan Heights?

Observers and analysts now wonder whether Israel aims to expand its territory in a straightforward landgrab, or build another buffer zone under its control along the border with Syria, similar to the buffer zone at its border with Lebanon and its planned buffer zone at the border with Gaza, or if this move could be really temporary.

In addition to the different militias, Israel previously had about the Assad regime's role transporting Iranian military equipment to Lebanon's Hezbollah militia.

So far, observers indicate that this has stopped. Iran and Hezbollah fought for the Assad regime and against members of HTS, so it seems unliekly the two would be as friendly again. 

"For Israel, as the most powerful army in the region, it was easy to start the land grab given the upheaval and transitional situation in Syria and the new leader's focus on basic internal country issues," Jamal Saghir, a former director at the World Bank and now Beirut-based Professor of Practice at the Institute for the Study of International Development at Canada's McGill University, told DW.

"However, it will be challenging to reverse the situation in the short-term," he said.

In his view, the new Syrian administration will need time to set up governance, rebuild the government and define their immediate priorities. 

"But by then, sovereignty of their land will be back on the table," he predicts.

Yossi Mekelberg, senior consulting fellow of the MENA Programme at the London-based think tank Chatham House, sees that "temporary is the key word in this situation."

"Temporary that turns into permanent becomes an occupation, and occupation usually leads to resistance and not to good neighborly relations," he told DW. 

In his view, however, Israel's security concerns have also be taken seriously.

"Israel has the duty to secure its borders but not through permanent occupation or military aggression," Mekelberg told DW.

If instead, UN forces were in charge to secure the border area, the situation could be stabilized, he said.

Golan Heights up for negotiation?

Meanwhile Arab countries have widely condemned Israel's move.

In an official statement published by the Saudi Press Agency earlier this week, Riyadh underscored the importance of respecting Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, reiterating that the Golan Heights is occupied Syrian land. 

"Israel's expansion and creation of a buffer zone within Syria's territory is not seen as justified in any way by Arab states," Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East North Africa programme at Chatham House, told DW.

In her view, Israel is failing to see that this policy is reducing its chances of broader integration into the Middle East.

Israel has normalized ties with several Arab countries, such as Sudan, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco during the first term of Donald Trump whose second term as US president will start in January.

However, negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is the most influential Arab country and the Custodian of the Holy Mosques Mecca and Medina, had come to a halt after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 and the resulting war in Gaza.

Yet, Sami Hamdi, managing director of the London-based risk and intelligence company International Interest, doesn't believe that Israel's seizure of Syria's territory, temporary or not, could jeopardize the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia.

In his view, Syria's sovereignty in the Golan Heights will not be on the table.

"Saudi Arabia's demands remain the same, Riyadh wants a NATO style security agreement from the US that guarantees protection against Iran, it wants more support for the economic reforms of its Vision 2030, and it wants access to nuclear technology," Hamdi told DW, adding that "it's important to stress that not even [an independent state of] Palestine is a key factor in the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and the Israelis."