Netanyahu vs Gantz — take 3

Instead of being abuzz with election campaigning, Israeli news has increasingly focused on the global coronavirus threat. What has become an epic battle between Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu and Benny Gantz — now in its third edition —  has at times, slipped down the news agenda. Israel has enacted strict measures to prevent the spread of the virus and Israelis have been advised to abstain from non-necessary overseas travel. Authorities have also restricted entry for visitors from several Asian countries and Italy. Israelis returning from countries with a coronavirus outbreak have been told to undergo a 14-day quarantine.

At the same time, both the acting prime minister from the center-right Likud party and his main opponent, Benjamin "Benny" Gantz, from Kahol Lavan (Blue and White alliance), have continued to rally voters ahead of the March 2 poll. Israeli media have described the third election campaign in a year as "lethargic to comatose" at best and speak about growing fatigue among the public.

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"You can't introduce a lot of new campaign messages because everything has already been said in the first and second rounds," says Tal Schneider, a political reporter for the Hebrew daily Globes. "The main issue is that we have gone without a government for a year now, the government is dysfunctional. The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, is out of order, nothing works and obviously people want to put this period behind them and move forward to have a government that will work for Israelis."

Political deadlock, no solution

After the last two elections in April and in September 2019, Netanyahu's religious right-wing bloc and Gantz's center-left bloc each fell short of the necessary 61 (of 120) Knesset seats required to form a coalition government. It remains to be seen whether either will unlock the political stalemate this time. The last polls before the election suggested either a neck-and-neck race or a slight advantage for Netanyahu, but still no majority for either bloc. A survey published on Thursday by the Israeli Democracy Institute found that 30% of Israeli voters think no government will be formed following the election.

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As with previous polls, many perceive this election as a referendum on Netanyahu, who continues to have a solid base of supporters. "It's about either a 'yes' or a 'no' for Netanyahu. Yes, there is ideology and maybe policies, but the most important issue is whether one supports Netanyahu or not," says Gideon Rahat, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Israeli Democracy Institute.

Israel's long-serving prime minister needs a clear victory to be able to retain power as just a few days later, on March 17, his corruption trial is due to begin. Netanyahu's main opponent has cited the outstanding charges as the main reason not to enter a grand coalition, or a unity government, with Likud, as long as Bibi leads the party.

"Netanyahu will be preoccupied with himself alone. He will not be in a position to look out for the interests of Israel's citizens," said Gantz while campaigning in the city of Rehovot. 

In September, after his rival had failed, the former army chief of staff also had to give back the mandate to form a government.  This time could prove just as difficult. The center-left camp, which includes a new alliance of the Labor and left-wing Meretz parties would not likely enable Gantz to muster up enough seats without the additional support of the Arab-Israeli Joint List. In addition, ex-defense minister Avigdor Lieberman and his right-wing nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party could once again turn out to be the kingmaker.

There are other important issues for Blue and White supporters, says Ron Littman, who helped campaign for the party in Jerusalem during the September poll. "One of the things that Israel needs is a change in discourse. It is characterized by a lot of hatred and by divisiveness. We need someone to bring the country together, where people can disagree but that doesn't make them enemies. Blue and White are trying to do that."

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Concerns about another election

Netanyahu denies the corruption allegations against him, describing the process as a witch hunt by the left and the left-wing media. While campaigning, he made one election pledge after another, living up to his nickname, "the magician." He promised convicted marijuana users that he would consider wiping clean their criminal records. He also vowed to the Ethiopian Jewish community to bring more Falash Mura from Ethiopia to Israel. And over the past days, he rallied the nationalist settler base by announcing several new settlement projects and housing around Jerusalem, including schemes in the controversial E1 area near East Jerusalem.

However, Netanyahu didn't manage to act on his promise of a swift annexation of settlements and the Jordan Valley in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, based on the Middle East plan that was announced in January by US President Donald Trump. This has caused a lot of criticism within the settler community. But it is unclear whether it will cost votes for his Likud party from smaller, far-right parties.

"Netanyahu has a record for many promises over the year," says Israeli journalist Tal Schneider. "The issue right now is really how to form a government. And from what we see at the polls is that we don't have a solution. The main issue people are talking about is: will we need a fourth election?"

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