Latvia Heads To Polls in Final EU Accession Referendum

Latvia is the last of the ten candidate countries to hold a referendum on joining the European Union. Opting "yes" for a "return to Europe" or "no" for the status quo, the country's 1.3 million voters will go to the polls on Saturday and decide the future of this former Soviet state.

Looking ahead to the next phase of enlargement -- after the completion of the candidate member's referendums -- insiders acknowledge the difficult work ahead: many issues remain unresolved.

Swing voters could be key

A day before the referendum, a "yes" vote looks likely, but is far from certain. Recent opinion polls show that 53 percent support EU entry, while 25 percent are against it; another 25 percent remain undecided. An anti-EU grassroots campaign has gained momentum in recent days, feeding fears that the already close vote may go the other way.

Some Latvians are weary of joining another union, fearing a distant EU in Brussels will be just as unconcerned with Latvian interests as the distant government in Moscow was. What's more, some -- due to domestic political considerations -- may vote no to protest the current governing coalition, which has been a very staunch supporter of joining the EU. And ethnic Russians, who make up one third of the country's population, are expected to vote against EU entry, as it will further distance Latvia from Russia.

Two days before the referendum, the Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga acknowledged the tentative situation to Reuters. "What worries me is that many voters will be answering a question they have asked themselves in the head, which is maybe not exactly the question the referendum is asking," she said. But she still expected the final yes vote to be around 62 percent: "I'd certainly feel more comfortable if the margin was larger."

Latvia is the last of the candidate countries to hold a referendum on joining Europe. Starting in March, nine of the ten candidates -- Cyprus ratified EU entry without a referendum -- began a series of referendums; thus far, each has voted yes. Estonian voters, going to the polls last Sunday, were the latest to signal their support for an enlarged Union.

A yes vote in Latvia will mark the beginning of the next phase of EU enlargement, culminating with the official entry of ten new members -- increasing the number of member states from 15 to 25 -- in May 2004.