Taiwan: How is China reacting to Lai's 'transit diplomacy?'

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's visit to the US state of Hawaii this week was billed by Taipei as a "transit" stopover during a week-long tour of the self-ruled island's few remaining diplomatic allies in the South Pacific.

Although Lai did not receive a formal government reception, he was greeted with a red carpet and Hawaiian leis (traditional flower garlands).

No meetings with high-ranking US officials were reported during his two-day stopover, which included an appearance at the US State Department-funded think tank, the East-West Center, during which he gave a speech, albeit after journalists were ushered out of the room.

He also met with Hawaii governor Josh Green at the state's emergency management agency and attended a banquet with Hawaii congressional representatives and state lawmakers.

Hawaii was Lai's first stop, before continuing to "official" visits to diplomatic allies the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which are among 12 remaining countries that recognize Taiwan. He is due to pass through the US island territory of Guam before returning home.

China, which considers Taiwan to be its territory, lashes out at anything implying the island is a sovereign country.

Although the US has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it is the island's most important security benefactor and is obligated under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide defensive arms, a policy that angers Beijing, which has vowed to "reunite" Taiwan with the mainland, by using force if necessary.

China has condemned Lai's trip as "political manipulation" and a "provocation," while warning of new military drills around Taiwan in response.

Beijing has in the past called Lai a "separatist" and ahead of Lai's departure last week, a Defense Ministry spokesman said China would "resolutely crush all secessionist attempts for Taiwan independence."

HKTKWW, a Hong Kong media outlet seen as a Beijing mouthpiece, criticized Lai's efforts as "futile attempts to curry favor" with the US.

What signals is Taiwan trying to send?

During his two-day visit to Hawaii, Lai's reported remarks included "China is the biggest challenge Taiwan faces" during the closed-door conference, while at another appearance, he urged Taiwan's international allies to cooperate on preventing conflicts as "war has no winners."

On Sunday, Lai also held a "warm and amicable" 20-minute phone call with former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, during which he discussed "China's military threats," his spokeswoman said.

Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan infuriated Beijing, which responded with massive military drills that simulated a blockade of the island.

Amid Lai's trip, Taiwan has detected significant military activity from China. The movements of a Chinese aircraft carrier were being closely monitored by Taiwan's Defense Ministry on Tuesday.

However, choosing the remote Hawaii and Guam, and not meeting with any high-ranking US government officials, has been interpreted as providing a symbolic reminder of the importance of US-Taiwan ties, without crossing Beijing's red lines.

Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told DW that these transit points, which are less prone to media attention and political controversy, "give Beijing fewer excuses to throw a tantrum."

"This is signaling to the world that Taiwan's new leadership values substantive relations more than symbolic gestures in a relatively low-key manner," he said.

How is China responding?

Raymond Kuo, a senior political scientist at RAND, a US defense think tank, told DW that he remains skeptical about whether Taiwan's calculated move will indeed "lower the temperature" for Beijing because China tends to "take any small pretext and blow it up to whatever they want it to be."

"Ultimately, it really depends on [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping, the only one person [who] really knows how he's going to react," Kuo said.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has lodged official protests.

On Tuesday, Reuters news agency cited anonymous security sources from Taiwan that Beijing could launch new war games as soon as this weekend, a day after Lai is to conclude his Pacific tour. Taiwan's Defense Ministry has declined to comment.

Researcher Sung told DW that although the Chinese government is likely to flex its military muscles to express its disapproval, the intensity and scale will be relatively restrained.

"As the US undergoes a government transition, the world is anxiously holding its breath, worried about whether the new administration will adopt a unilateral approach," Sung said, describing the timing as an opportunity for Beijing to demonstrate its status as a major power and win over international support.

"If Beijing overreacts now, displaying a petty and narrow-minded attitude, it will squander this advantageous opportunity to expand its international circle of friends," he added.

Looking ahead to a new Trump administration

The Taiwanese leader's diplomatic tour also comes as US President-elect Donald Trump is set to return to the White House in January.

Trump has previously urged Taiwan to increase its defense spending, and has accused its top-tier chip manufacturers of taking American jobs.

During the closed-door speech in Hawaii, Lai was reported to have responded to these criticisms by pledging to enhance Taiwan's self-defense and to strengthen cooperation with the US in the semiconductor sector.

Lai's visit to Guam, whose naval base is a key node for the US's Indo-Pacific strategy, also has symbolic value.

Kuo from RAND added that the visit emphasized that the US and Taiwan "have a lot of common interests when it comes to disaster response… and what you would expect in a military contingency."

"This was a relatively muted but still kind of positive signal between the US and Taiwan," he said.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn