Military strengths on the Korean Peninsula
June 8, 2018
The United States, North Korea and a host of other nations appear to be carefully preparing for what would be a historic meeting between a sitting US president, Donald Trump, and the leader of the reclusive East Asian nation, Kim Jong Un.
If all goes according to plan, Trump will meet Kim in Singapore on June 12.
It would represent a remarkable turnaround from the events on the Korean Peninsula last year, marked by bellicose rhetoric from Washington and Pyongyang, accompanied by the North's nuclear and missile tests.
While Trump threatened to "totally destroy" North Korea and mocked Kim as the "little rocket man" who was on a suicide mission, Kim returned the favor by promising to "surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire."
Although tensions seem to have eased a bit since the start of 2018, it's too early to conclude that there is no longer a risk of a military conflagration on the Korean Peninsula.
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High militarization
Both North and South Korea have been divided by the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. The conflict back then ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty, and the DMZ remains one of the most heavily fortified places on Earth, where two of the world's largest militaries stay prepared for a confrontation.
According to an index developed by the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), a German NGO, South Korea is one of the most militarized nations in the world. It ranks sixth worldwide on the index, which was last updated in 2016.
North Korea is not ranked in the index due to the difficulty in acquiring and assessing information related to its military. But it's assumed by observers like BICC's Marius Bales that "there is a high degree of militarization" in North Korean society as well. "This is obvious from the fact that they have a 1.2-million strong military for some 24 million inhabitants."
Allies for North and South
The two highly armed Koreas are each backed by countries that have a historic geopolitical rivalry with each other. Standing behind the the North, it's the People's Republic of China, while on the side of the South, it's the US. The US-South Korean relationship was sealed in 1953 by a military alliance. In 1961, the North signed a friendship treaty with China and the former Soviet Union including the provision of military and economic aid.
Although Russia later abrogated the military assistance pact, China has maintained it.
Another player in the region, Japan, feels threatened by North Korea. While Tokyo's position in the region is underpinned by its special relationship with the US , its relations with countries like South Korea and China are burdened by its colonial past and World War II legacy.
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Quantity vs. quality
One way of showing the military balance of power in the region is by comparing the number of people in the armed forces in each country, as well as the size and scope of the armaments they possess. However, such an approach is mired in imperfections, and the numbers presented have to be treated with some caution.
An annual report on the subject entitled "The Military Balance," published by the UK-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), is considered to be authoritative. It extensively documents the procurement of weapons by various militaries.
The figures are partly based on the official data supplied by the countries to international organizations like the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms. But the IISS neither reveals all the sources of its information nor follows a uniform method. It's unclear, for instance, how accurate statistics on North Korea are as the country doesn't release any official data.
There is no other alternative, though, says BICC expert Bales. "The Military Balance is the best as well as the only source in this field."
Still, the expert underlined that the figures represent only the quantity of weapons and not their quality. For example, Bales points out that one heavy tank cannot be considered to be exactly equal in its capabilities to another heavy tank. "A Soviet T-62 tank of the North Korean Army from the late 1960s cannot be on an equal footing with a South Korean K2 Black Panther tank from 2013."
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The manner in which the comparative strengths of militaries were assessed in the 19th and early 20th centuries has become obsolete, experts say.
"Modern warfare and modern weapon systems can't be compared like that," Bales stressed, because today we don't need tanks in equal number to destroy enemy tanks, but can also use drones, helicopters and other aircraft to do that task.
Also, the figures do not show details of other critical resources that are required to operate the weapons. North Korea, for instance, suffers from an acute fuel shortage, hindering its ability to operate training aircraft. In the case of North Korea, Bales said, "the size of the military stands in contrast to its quality. Its air force, in particular, is obsolete, with its most modern aircraft dating back to the 1980s."
South Korea, on the other hand, is equipped with state-of-the-art military gear, thanks largely to weapons deliveries from the US and Germany.
What the figures additionally show is what areas each country's military focused on. Being an island nation, Japan has paid attention to strengthening the capabilities of its navy and air force. In the Koreas, however, the army occupies the central role.
The relatively high number of heavy tanks and artillery guns in both those countries show that their armies are designed for large field battles and the defense of their borders. The large number of North Korean submarines is due to their high deterrent potential. And the figures also prove all the countries' determination to defend themselves militarily.
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Technological gap
Still, all this would be meaningless when compared to the mighty US military machine.
A look at the country's strategic weapons, including long-range missiles and nuclear warheads, makes it clear immediately. China and the US have such capabilities, unlike South Korea and Japan.
North Korea is striving hard to acquire them, but has faced daunting challenges in developing reliable long-range missiles. The US' weapons technology is so far advanced that North Korea hardly has any chance of competing with it on a technological level, observers reckon.
"With all the technical considerations, however, one should not forget the mutual vulnerability of North and South Korea," says BICC analyst Bale.
About 70 percent of North Korea's ground troops are stationed along the border. And South Korea's bustling capital, Seoul, is just 50 kilometers away from the frontier. "Even with obsolete technology, a devastating attack on South Korea can be carried out with the large number of tanks, artillery and armored personnel carriers."