Turkey's historic vote: The end for Erdogan?

Turkey is set to elect a new parliament and, potentially, a new president. After almost 20 years in power, the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not the clear favorite. While three candidates have officially entered the race, the real nail-biter will be between Erdogan and challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Polls show Erdogan trailing slightly

All polls currently put Kilicdaroglu in the lead. According to the three most recent surveys, Kilicdaroglu would get about 49% of all votes, while Erdogan would get about 45%. The ultranationalist politician Sinan Ogan, who entered the race as an outsider, would receive between 2% and 5% of the votes.

However, these surveys were conducted before a fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, dropped out of the race earlier this week. His withdrawal could have a decisive effect on the election outcome. Most of Ince's votes are expected to go to his former party comrade Kilicdaroglu, and polls have indicated that Ince would have received about 2% of the votes.

If none of the candidates are able to collect at least 50% of the votes in the first election, Turkey's future president will be determined in a runoff vote on May 28.

Concerns over misinformation, ballot rigging

According to official data, some 64 million people are eligible to vote in Turkey's upcoming election. Around 3.5 million of them live abroad. In Germany alone, there are 1.5 million eligible voters, of whom about 732,000 already exercised that right.

Turkish authorities have stated that, in addition, some 167,000 people with Syrian roots and another 66,000 expats living in Turkey are also eligible to cast a vote. With the exception of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), all parties have entered the race promising to push refugees out of the country as soon as possible.

Last week, Kilicdaroglu called on his supporters to not celebrate in the streets should he win the election, for fear of possible clashes with violent supporters of the current government. The opposition has also warned voters about misinformation deliberately being issued by government circles. Throughout his campaign, Erdogan had repeatedly accused the opposition of "godlessness," "supporting terrorism" or of being "steered by terrorists." In past days, fake brochures — purportedly issued by the opposition and supporting these allegations — have been found on Turkey's streets.

Recently, Suleyman Soylu, the Turkish interior minister and member of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), had floated the idea of using a system parallel to the election authority's own to tally votes, a process which could potentially contribute to manipulation. The opposition has alerted the public to these plans, which have also been rejected by Turkey's election authorities.

Halting the democratic backslide

Above all, this election is about the future of the country's political system. The opposition's key campaign promise is to reverse Erdogan's yearlong efforts to consolidate a presidential system, and instead return to a parliamentary system.

According to its constitution, Turkey has been a parliamentary democracy since its founding in 1923. But it has been Erdogan's wish to reshape this structure. In 2018, he introduced a new presidential system that abolished the office of prime minister and made the president the head of government.

In the new system, the president is elected directly by the people every five years, and is granted sweeping powers. For example, the president can appoint and dismiss ministers at his or her own discretion, and is also head of the cabinet. The president can issue presidential decrees and has free rein to appoint certain roles in the judiciary, financial and educational sectors. Key officers in the secret services or in the powerful religious affairs directorate also answer to the president.

The introduction of the new presidential system also abolished many checks and balances, and therefore impartiality. This is why Erdogan was able to retain his chairmanship of the socially conservative AKP. 

Does Turkey's parliament have any power?

Even though the introduction of the new presidential system in 2018 saw the number of parliamentarians rise from 550 to 600 lawmakers, Erdogan has still managed to consign the parliament to insignificance. Parliament still holds power to deliberate and pass legislation, but the ruling AKP has used its majority to block opposition proposals while pushing through its own agenda.

The AKP's majority has also enabled it to dismiss demands by the opposition to create investigative committees in the wake of natural disasters, like the devastating earthquakes in March that killed tens of thousands, or corruption cases. In most cases, the government never even responded to the opposition's requests.

What alliances have formed?

Three electoral alliances will play a key role in the upcoming election: the People's Alliance headed by Erdogan, the Nation Alliance of the six-party opposition bloc and the left wing Labor and Freedom Alliance led by the HDP.

Aside from Erdogan's AKP, the People's Alliance also includes the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Great Unity Party (BBP), both of which are considered ultranationalist. Recently, the New Welfare Party (YRP), with its nationalist, religious outlook, also joined his alliance. Erdogan's alliance is further supported by the pro-Kurdish Free Cause Party (HÜDA-PAR), an Islamist party that is mainly active in Kurdish-populated parts of the country.

The major alliance challenging Erdogan consists of six very different parties supporting Kilicdaroglu. As a presidential candidate, he enjoys wide respect among those critical of the current government. Even the Labor and Freedom Alliance favors Kilicdaroglu, though they have not joined the alliance backing him.

The driving force behind the Labor and Freedom Alliance is the HDP, which has been under immense pressure since it became the third largest party in parliament.

Thousands of its members are currently imprisoned on terrorism charges, the party's bank accounts have been frozen and there is a case going through higher courts asking that the party itself be banned altogether. Nearly all HDP mayors who have previously been elected have been deposed, and former party leader Selahattin Demirtas has been kept in a maximum security prison for the past seven years.

But this has not stopped Demirtas from leading a successful campaign against Erdogan and his government, calling on Kurdish voters to cast their ballot in favor of Kilicdaroglu.

This article was originally published in German.