How close are Germany and the US?

US-German relations were strained during the presidency of Donald Trump, to say the least. After Joe Biden took over in 2021, the countries aimed for a reset based on their historical ties, security needs and values. But it hasn't always been smooth sailing.

America's long condemnation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a project to bring natural gas from Russia directly to Germany, was unusual for a relationship between friends. America's bullying of Germany to drop Huawei and ZTE from its 5G networks was awkward, too.

This was followed by the disastrous withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, which came as a surprise for European allies.

The retirement of Angela Merkel after 16 years as German chancellor later that year was less of a surprise, but still meant change. Her successor, Olaf Scholz, has met with Biden on numerous occasions and never fails to point out the importance of good bilateral relations. 

The US president was set to arrive in Germany for a short visit Thursday, after canceling a state visit scheduled for last week before in order to direct the response to consecutive hurricanes in the United States. During his visit, he is expected to discuss the international response to Russia's war in Ukraine with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and receive Germany's Order of Merit from President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in recognition of his decades of public service. He is only the second US president to receive this honor, after George HW Bush, who was awarded it in 1994, a year after he left office.

Military might and coordinated action

One of the most contentious points of conflict between Germany and Trump was Europe's lackluster spending on NATO, and military defense in general. 

Since the Trump presidency, an actual war has put a spotlight on the issue. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Germany woke up to the need to rethink its military spending and security policy.

For its part, the United States has been a staunch ally of Ukraine's and is its biggest backer, followed by Germany.

A few days after the invasion, Scholz made a rousing speech about "epochal change" that was a big U-turn for a traditionally more passive Germany. He also announced a €100 billion defense-spending package.

Germany has backed a number of US sanctions against Russia, and worked together on a tricky prisoner exchange.

The country has also turned away from Russian gas as one of its main energy sources. To make up for that shortfall, Germany has looked to America, among others, for imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). For the US, Germany's shift has just underlined suspicions about relying on Russia and the Nord Stream pipelines in the first place.

Military might and long-range missiles

As for the war in Gaza, both the US and Germany have taken similar views with their support for Israel and have spent a lot of diplomatic effort on brokering a long-term ceasefire.

One point of contention between Washington and Berlin may be an increased US military presence in Germany. Germany is currently home to more than 35,000 active-duty US military personnel, more than the rest of the EU combined. Many Europeans enjoy the security guaranteed by this presence.

Starting in 2026, the United States wants to base long-range weapons in Germany for the first time since the 1990s. These weapons would not only protect Germany but other eastern NATO neighbors like Poland and the Baltic states. The agreement was made without parliamentary debate, and has been met with some criticism from the far left and right, but also from within Scholz's coalition.

It's all about the economy

Something else that connects the two countries is their intertwined economies. The US is Germany's biggest trading partner, and German companies are the third-largest foreign employer in America, providing over 900,000 jobs, according to the German Embassy in Washington.

About 85% of Americans and 77% of Germans rate the relationship between the cotries as good, according to a survey published by the Pew Research Center and the Körber Foundation in late 2023.

The survey found that a majority of people in the United States and Germany see China's growing influence as a bad thing for their countries. Seven out of 10 Americans surveyed see China as a major economic and security threat. By comparison, only around half of Germans see China as an economic threat.

Still, Germany recently backed down and followed the US's lead by ordering Chinese firms out of its 5G networks. Germany, like the US, is also building up its chipmaking capabilities to be less dependent on other countries, especially Taiwan-based TSMC — just in case China invades the island as some fear.

US officials want Germany to take a tougher stance on China to keep it in check economically — an approach the United States is leading by example. Earlier this year, the US announced stiff new tariffs for Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). 

Yet, after the European Union announced its own tariffs, Germany took a back seat and grumbled about retaliation against its domestic automotive sector.

A Trump reelection would cause upheaval

Looking ahead, finding common ground between the US, Germany and EU shouldn't be difficult and a win by Kamala Harris would likely keep things pretty much as they are. Germans would prefer to have it that way, but the German government is making contingency plans just in case.

A win for Trump, on the other hand, could have serious consequences when it comes to US support for Ukraine and American troop numbers in Europe. The former president has often questioned the value of trans-Atlantic alliances and sees Europe as economic competition. This could mean less cooperation, more tariffs or a trade war.

"Trump 2.0 would mean an even more drastic break in trans-Atlantic relations," Rachel Tausendfreund wrote in a paper on the US election published in September.

Tausendfreund, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that Germany must make sure to present itself as a useful partner for security and global strategy no matter who wins the election, especially since it depends on the US for much of its security.

In the past, Germany has made numerous concessions to the United States to keep things running smoothly. This tactic seems to suit both sides and is unlikely to change. Sometimes even close friendships are not exactly equal.

Edited by: Martin Kuebler