Why abductions in Kenya pose a threat to national security

Kenyan youth demanding a stronger economy and a brighter future have been clashing with government forces in protests since June.

The violence on the streets of Nairobi and other parts of the country has largely abated in recent months following a series of symbolic initiatives by President William Ruto. But the story of the youth protesters is far from over:

What many did not anticipate is that, months later, protesters would find themselves still fighting for their own freedom and security — perhaps more so than before.

At least 82 Kenyans have gone missingsince the Gen-Z protests began in June, with six people reportedly abducted in the past two weeks.

Strategic pattern behind abductions

The people disappeared are believed to be in the custody of security agents, although the police have denied any involvement in the abductions.

Security analyst and former national security agent George Musamali told DW that politically motivated abductions are far from a new phenomenon in the region.

"About a month ago, we witnessed the abduction of Ugandan politician Kizza Besigye, who was deported back to Uganda [from Kenya]. Similarly, there were cases of people from Turkey who were abducted in Kenya and sent back to Turkey. This is a worrying trend that demands answers," he said.

The disappearances seem to display a strategic pattern, targeting individuals who have been critical of the government, particularly those who have voiced their opposition on social media platforms like X.

"Many of these individuals were key figures in the protests of June," Musamali added.

Political analyst and activist Jim India told DW that, despite the denials of involvement by the police and government, credible sources have suggested that law enforcement officials played a role in the detentions.

"Historically, especially during protests, detainees have been released by the police, which creates a clear connection between the abductions and law enforcement," India said.

More protests, more arrests

On Monday, Kenyans organized a protest demanding the release of the six most recently abducted individuals: Gideon Kibet, Bernard Kavuli, Peter Muteti, Billy Mwangi, Rony Kiplangat and Steven Kavingo.

The police responded to the rally by firing tear gas at demonstrators and arresting several who were due to appear in court the next morning.

India said that, while the arraignment over the newest arrests were being heard, the case of the missing six individuals was being heard in another courtroom after the Law Society of Kenya had filed an application demanding that the police either produce the missing individuals or have the inspector general of police appear in court.

Neither the inspector general nor the missing individuals were presented in court, as their distressed parents were seen pleading for answers about their whereabouts.

In a separate courtroom, 14 people detained during the protest were charged with unlawful assembly and incitement to violence.

The director of public prosecutions requested to have the group detained for 14 more days and to be granted access their mobile phones and social media accounts for investigation purposes.

The court rejected this request, releasing the detainees on bail.

Echoes from the past

India regards the release of the 14 protesters as a significant victory, as it demonstrates the fact that the courts can still be trusted to uphold the law.

He said this could encourage further protests until the missing six are released.

Musamali, drawing on his experience in national security, said the mystery surrounding the current situation mirrors past practices, in which security officials would be "handpicked” and given instructions directly from the government, bypassing the police command structures.

"In those years, we had the police commission and a group called the 'Special Branch,' which operated outside the police command," Musamali said. "We are seeing a recurrence of this, where individuals may be receiving instructions from outside the police command, which is why the inspector general of police cannot provide answers.”

There is meanwhile growing concern among Kenyans that these abductions are not just a violation of political rights but also pose a serious security threat in the longterm in themselves.

Implications for national security

The main concern is that the current climate, which by all appearances is marked by heavy-handed responses to protests, abductions and a lack of accountability by authorities, could erode trust in government institutions.

"This is very risky in terms of national security. It divides people politically, which can lead to the same kind of violence we saw in the 2007/2008 post-election clashes," India said.

"This could create a situation where the police and citizens become increasingly hostile toward each other, potentially leading to a 'ganglike' state," he added. "Citizens may feel compelled to defend themselves against authority figures they no longer trust, resulting in lawlessness.”

"When people start taking orders from external sources instead of a centralized command, it poses a danger,” Musamali said.

India said that when the government itself is seen as the primary culprit working against its own citizens, those citizens will lose faith in it.

He called on the government to uphold the rule of law, which he believes is the only way to restore stability and avoid further escalation.

In the meantime, the situation in Kenya remains precarious, and many fear it could spiral deeper into a state of constant unrest.

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson